Posts

Update Aug-2019

A quick update of the Permanent Portfolio and Momentun Portfolio at half of the year, 2018 losses have already been recovered!

The Alternative Portfolio (Singularis) is still on standby after having recovered half the 2018 losses so far.


I have coded 2 portfolios to be interactive and configurable :

 

In case you have some needs for this type of application, feel free to contact me. 

 

nicolas.lequeux.shinyapps-nlx-aaa-input

 

Have a nice summer,
Nicolas

Update Dec-31, 2018

Happy New Year 2019 !

NLX Portfolio performances for the year 2018:
  – Permanent Portfolio: -1.49%
  – Momentum Portfolio: -5.67%
  – Alternative Portfolio (Singularis CTA Program): -10.18%

The NLX Portfolio for the year 2018: -8.41%

Definitely not an easy year, but the overall loss remains contained without major accident on the overall portfolio (-8.41%).

This blog will be less active in the following months, the time for me to complete some works (R back-testings) and probably a new design and content for the blog.
See you soon,
Nicolas

Recommended reading for the month

Mr. Money Mustache – 29/11/2018
How to Retire Forever on a Fixed Chunk of Money

Absolute Return Partners – 04/12/2018
The Art of Defaulting

Ray Dalio – 26/12/2018
To Help Put Recent Economic & Market Moves in Perspective

GFM – 08/12/2018
100 Top UCITS ETFs (UK listed) for 2019

Quantpedia – 05/12/2018
A Portfolio of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds vs. Benchmark Asset Allocation
A similar article on leverage ETF Exploring Smart Leverage: DAA on Steroids

 

Update for November 2018

 

Allocations for November 2018 have been updated.

Portfolio gross performances in October 2018:

  • Permanent Portfolio: -2.08%
  • Momentum Portfolio: -2.70%
  • Alternative Portfolio (Singularis CTA Program): -3.59%

The NLX Portfolio for the month: -4.19%

Recommended reading for the month

A Wealth Of Common Sense – 13/11/2018
What If You Retire At a Stock Market Peak?

Dual Momentum – 16/10/2018
Extended Backtest of Global Equities Momentum

Visual Capitalist
The $80 Trillion World Economy in One Chart

Charles Schwab – 26/10/2018
Market Correction: What Does It Mean?

Update for October 2018

Allocations for October 2018 have been updated.

Portfolio gross performances in September 2018:

  • Permanent Portfolio: -0.64%
  • Momentum Portfolio: +0.01%
  • Alternative Portfolio (Singularis CTA Program): -1.13%

The NLX Portfolio for the month: -0.88%

Recommended reading for the month

None for this month

 

Update for September 2018

Allocations for September 2018 have been updated.

Portfolio gross performances in August 2018:

  • Permanent Portfolio: +0.71%
  • Momentum Portfolio: +1.12%
  • Alternative Portfolio (Singularis CTA Program): -3.56%

The NLX Portfolio for the month: -0.87%

Comment Singularis CTA Program :

The US is experiencing the longest bull market in history.  The existing liquidity is dramatically reducing any correction or retracement we see in general in the market behavior. This situation concerns also Singularis’ trading between the night and day sessions. Shorting the S&P 500 results explain all the Program’s losses for 2018 as the winning rate for this kind of trade went from a 65% over the entire track record period to 28% in 2018. An analysis of the track record, including the back test, shows that the performance following the biggest drawdowns tends to be attractive with a 9 months forward return over +15% from the low point.

Recommended reading for the month

A Wealth Of Common Sense – 28/08/2018
Why Doesn’t The Stock Market Care About the News?

TopForeignStocks – 22/08/2018
Average Annual US Equity Returns Following Bear Markets

TopForeignStocks – 27/08/2018
US Fed Tightening and Financial Crises

Témoignafe Fiscal – 08/09/2018
France : La croissance molle n’a rien d’étonnant

 

Update August 2018

Allocations for August 2018 have been updated.

Portfolio gross performances in July 2018:

  • Permanent Portfolio: +0.11%
  • Momentum Portfolio: +2.26%
  • Alternative Portfolio (Singularis CTA Program): -2.03%

The NLX Portfolio for the month: +0.17%

Recommended reading for the month

Gary Antonacci – 31/07/2018
Momentum Solutions for Retirement

Oldest backtests about GEM worth knowing
TrendXplorer : Prospecting Dual Momentum With GEM
SVRN AM : Is Gary Antonacci’s Global Equity Momentum Strategy Robust?

David Hunkar – 14/07/2018
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines and Annual Price Returns 1948 to 2017: Chart

“One of the biggest factors that impact investor returns with equity investing is selling out when markets correct. Patience and not panicking is the key to long-term success with stocks. Just as stocks can go up they go down as well. For instance, the S&P 500 has seen annual average declines of 13.8% since 1948. Yet the annual returns in terms of price changes only have been positive in 51 of those 70 years as shown in the chart below.”

20180810-SP-500-Intra-year-declines-and-annual-price-returns-1948-to-2017

 

 

Update July 2018

Allocations for July 2018 have been updated.

Portfolio gross performances in June 2018:

  • Permanent Portfolio: -056%
  • Momentum Portfolio: -0.38%
  • Alternative Portfolio (Singularis CTA Program): +0.25%

The NLX Portfolio for the month: -0.35%

Recommended reading for the month

Investing for a Living – 03/05/2016
Searching a good indicator to predict a coming recession seems to be a major topic at this time, here is a simple and efficient one : Using economic indicators to time the market

Not much interesting readings this month, but I have noticed that “no-fee” brokers start entering the European market :

Robinhood in the US (https://robinhood.com/).
DEGIRO in the EU (https://www.degiro.eu/).

Update June 2018

Allocations for June 2018 have been updated.

Portfolio gross performances in May 2018:

  • Permanent Portfolio: +0.83%
  • Momentum Portfolio: -0.79%
  • Alternative Portfolio (Singularis CTA Program): -3.41%

The NLX Portfolio for the month: -1.69%

Recommended reading for the month

OppenheimerFunds – 23/04/2018
Emerging markets beat developed markets in long-term equity returns. The “Momentum Portfolio” profits of this “relative” momentum.
10 Things to Know About Emerging Market Stocks

Charles Schwab – 14/05/2018
Excellent article about market cyclicality, whose the Momentom Portfolio benefits
How To Avoid A Shark Attack

Mises Institute – 17/05/2018
7 Reasons Why European Banks Are in Trouble

John Mauldin – 18/05/2018
Train Crash Preview

Ben Carslon – 20/05/2018
Do Long-Term Investors Need Bonds?

Quantpedida – 29/05/2018
Short-Term Return Reversals and Intraday Transactions
“… Fama (1965) shows that volatility is higher during trading hours (intraday) than it is during non-trading hours (overnight), and Kelly and Clark (2011) suggest that overnight stock returns are, on average, higher than intraday returns. Thus, decomposing return reversals into overnight and intraday return components could yield new and important information on the drivers of the short-term return reversal.”

 

 

Update May 2018

Allocations for May 2018 have been updated.

Portfolio gross performances in April 2018:

  • Permanent Portfolio: -0.59%
  • Momentum Portfolio: -0.25%
  • Alternative Portfolio (Singularis CTA Program): +3.73%

The NLX Portfolio for the month: +1.45%

Recommended reading for the month

Nassim Taleb – 02/04/2018
Why Nassim Taleb Thinks Leaders Make Poor Decisions

Thinkerview – 03/04/2018
DELAMARCHE, GAVE, SABATIER : GÉOPOLITIQUE, MACROÉCONOMIE SANS FILTRE

Gary Antonacci – 09-Apr-2018
Common Misconceptions About Momentum

Dubai 1960-2021
What you may think about Dubai, it is an amazing city amid arabic countries…
Dubai Evolution from 1960 to 2021 Time-lapse

Institut des Libertés – 16/04/2018
Mais que se passe-t-il au Moyen Orient

Update April 2018

Allocations for April 2018 have been updated.

Portfolio gross performances in March 2018:

  • Permanent Portfolio: +0.40%
  • Momentum Portfolio: +0.90%
  • Alternative Portfolio (Singularis CTA Program): -0.94%

The NLX Portfolio for the month: +0.18%

Recommended reading for the month

Ben Carlson, Bloomberg – 02/22/2018
Inflation Is a Bigger Danger to Stock Than Rising Rates

Allocate Smartly – 03/04/2018
Testing the Efficiente Index

Relative Sizes of Global Equity Markets 1899 versus 2017

20180331 Relative-Size-of-Global-Equity-Markets-1899-vs-2017